Staley had the opportunities to tilt win probability in his favor. Let’s look at the flaws in his decision making, why win probability is such an important tool, and how teams can influence it.
Good story. Surprised you focused on the 1st half tho. You don’t once mentioned the lack of going for it on 4th down late in the 4th quarter when they were down 7 or the running plays they kept calling during those last few scoreless drives.
The 1st half is what I had all the metrics on and specific numbers and it was enough to illustrate the point. I could have also talked about how Reid was worse in his decision making than Staley. A lot more I can add but wanted to stay on topic and keep it to a read less than 10 min.
Good post. Two points: 1) A year ago Staley often said Herbert’s ability drove the logic to going for it on fourth down. Even if he was downplaying other factors, like the historical data that I guess is baked into the probability models the Chargers analytics staff would use, Herbert rewarded Staley’s faith at a pretty high rate. So the question that last night’s decisions raised is this one: if Herbert was worthy of Staley’s faith last year, why would he be worthy of less faith last night? Doesn’t make sense that he would. He had another season under his belt coming into this year and generally performed well. 2) you mentioned that injuries could lead a coach to go against the probability model. I’d imagine that the injury to Corey Linsley may have dissuaded him from going for it. However, he was still playing in the situations you mentioned. QUESTION: Was Reid’s decision to kick the FG from the 1 worse in terms of probability net outcome than Staley’s two punt decisions put together? I think I saw that ESPN said it was. I’d suggest that KC’s terrible performance in short yardage influenced Reid’s decision. They were like 1 for 5. The Chargers D had created a bunch of negative plus, at least four of them. And I think Geoff Schwartz’s video critiques of Chiefs RB point to reason for skepticism they’ll get that yard.
Staley being more conservative actually started after week 15 vs. the Chiefs last year. His aggression hurt him and he doesn’t seem to have fully recovered. Linsley certainly hurt but a pass-first offense shouldn’t be that impacted. Reid was definitely worse but that’s what we’ve come to expect so it’s not as newsworthy.
Not totally true. He went for it inside his own 30 against the Raiders in the most important game of season and didn’t convert. I think it was an Ekeler run at that.
Good story. Surprised you focused on the 1st half tho. You don’t once mentioned the lack of going for it on 4th down late in the 4th quarter when they were down 7 or the running plays they kept calling during those last few scoreless drives.
The 1st half is what I had all the metrics on and specific numbers and it was enough to illustrate the point. I could have also talked about how Reid was worse in his decision making than Staley. A lot more I can add but wanted to stay on topic and keep it to a read less than 10 min.
Good post. Two points: 1) A year ago Staley often said Herbert’s ability drove the logic to going for it on fourth down. Even if he was downplaying other factors, like the historical data that I guess is baked into the probability models the Chargers analytics staff would use, Herbert rewarded Staley’s faith at a pretty high rate. So the question that last night’s decisions raised is this one: if Herbert was worthy of Staley’s faith last year, why would he be worthy of less faith last night? Doesn’t make sense that he would. He had another season under his belt coming into this year and generally performed well. 2) you mentioned that injuries could lead a coach to go against the probability model. I’d imagine that the injury to Corey Linsley may have dissuaded him from going for it. However, he was still playing in the situations you mentioned. QUESTION: Was Reid’s decision to kick the FG from the 1 worse in terms of probability net outcome than Staley’s two punt decisions put together? I think I saw that ESPN said it was. I’d suggest that KC’s terrible performance in short yardage influenced Reid’s decision. They were like 1 for 5. The Chargers D had created a bunch of negative plus, at least four of them. And I think Geoff Schwartz’s video critiques of Chiefs RB point to reason for skepticism they’ll get that yard.
Staley being more conservative actually started after week 15 vs. the Chiefs last year. His aggression hurt him and he doesn’t seem to have fully recovered. Linsley certainly hurt but a pass-first offense shouldn’t be that impacted. Reid was definitely worse but that’s what we’ve come to expect so it’s not as newsworthy.
Not totally true. He went for it inside his own 30 against the Raiders in the most important game of season and didn’t convert. I think it was an Ekeler run at that.
*plays*
*RBs*